Analyzing Trump's Middle East Tour: Impacts On Arab-Israeli Relations

Hugo van Dijk

5 min read

Post on May 18, 2025

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Trump's Policies and Their Immediate Impact on the Region

Trump's Middle East policy, unveiled during and after his tour, significantly altered the dynamics of the region. Several key policy shifts had immediate repercussions on Arab-Israeli relations.

The "Deal of the Century" and its Reception

The "Deal of the Century," a proposed peace plan between Israelis and Palestinians, was a centerpiece of Trump's Middle East strategy. It aimed to address core issues such as borders, settlements, Jerusalem, and the status of Palestinian refugees. However, the plan's reception was far from universal.

• Israeli Reactions: The Israeli government largely welcomed aspects of the plan, particularly those pertaining to sovereignty and security.
• Palestinian Reactions: The Palestinian Authority (PA) firmly rejected the plan, citing its perceived inadequacy in addressing Palestinian statehood and the rights of refugees.
• Arab League Response: The Arab League's response was largely divided, with some states expressing cautious optimism while others echoed the PA's outright rejection.

Key Criticisms of the "Deal of the Century":

• Inadequate address of Palestinian statehood.
• Unfavorable terms regarding Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees.
• Lack of meaningful consultation with the Palestinian leadership.

Points of Agreement (Limited):

• Acknowledgment of the need for economic development in the Palestinian territories.
• Recognition of the need for improved security cooperation.

Changes in US Foreign Policy Towards Iran

Trump's hardline stance against Iran, marked by withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the imposition of severe sanctions, significantly impacted regional stability. This shift had both direct and indirect implications for Arab-Israeli relations. Many Arab nations, sharing concerns about Iran's regional ambitions, found common ground with Israel in their opposition to Tehran's influence.

Key Policy Shifts and Consequences:

• Withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA): Increased regional tensions.
• Imposition of sanctions on Iran: Weakened Iran's economy and regional influence, but also fueled resentment.
• Increased military presence in the region: Perceived by some as an escalation of tensions, while others viewed it as necessary for regional security.

Strengthened US-Israel Ties

Trump's tour was characterized by a demonstrable strengthening of the US-Israel alliance. This was evident in increased military and economic cooperation, as well as rhetorical support for Israel's policies.

Examples of Increased Cooperation:

• Increased military aid to Israel.
• Joint military exercises and intelligence sharing.
• Strong public statements of support for Israel's security.

Long-Term Effects on Arab-Israeli Relations

The long-term consequences of Trump's Middle East tour and his associated policies remain to be fully realized, but several potential trajectories can be observed.

Shifts in Regional Alliances

Trump's policies potentially led to a realignment of regional alliances, with some Arab nations drawing closer to Israel due to shared concerns about Iran. However, this also risked alienating other Arab nations that viewed Trump's policies as favoring Israel disproportionately.

Examples of Shifting Alliances:

• Closer cooperation between Israel and some Gulf states on counter-terrorism.
• Strained relations between the PA and the US administration.

The Palestinian Question and the Peace Process

Trump's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly the "Deal of the Century," significantly impacted the long-term prospects for peace negotiations. The rejection of the plan by the PA cast a long shadow over the two-state solution, raising questions about the future of the peace process.

Impact on Key Issues:

• Settlements: The plan's ambiguity on settlements further complicated their future status.
• Borders: Proposed borders were highly contentious and rejected by the Palestinians.
• Refugees: The plan failed to adequately address the issue of Palestinian refugees, a major sticking point in peace talks.

Increased Regional Tensions or De-escalation?

Whether Trump's tour ultimately contributed to increased regional tensions or de-escalation is a matter of ongoing debate. While some argue that the strengthened US-Israel alliance and the hardline approach toward Iran exacerbated existing tensions, others suggest that the focus on economic development and counter-terrorism cooperation could potentially contribute to regional stability in the long term.

Contrasting Perspectives:

• Increased Tensions: The rejection of the "Deal of the Century" and the escalation of the Iran conflict fuelled regional instability.
• De-escalation: Cooperation on counter-terrorism and economic initiatives could foster a degree of stability.

Conclusion

Trump's Middle East tour significantly impacted Arab-Israeli relations, producing both short-term and long-term consequences. The "Deal of the Century," the shift in US policy towards Iran, and the strengthening of the US-Israel alliance all had profound effects on the regional balance of power and the prospects for peace. While some aspects of Trump's policies fostered closer cooperation between Israel and certain Arab nations, others exacerbated existing tensions and further complicated the already fragile peace process. The long-term ramifications of Trump's Middle East policy continue to unfold, underscoring the need for further analysis and understanding of this complex and dynamic geopolitical landscape. To gain a deeper understanding of the ongoing ramifications, further research into Trump's Middle East policy and the Trump administration's impact on the Middle East is strongly encouraged.