India's Strategic Choice: The Decoupling From Pakistan, Turkey, And Azerbaijan

Hugo van Dijk

6 min read

Post on May 18, 2025

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Deteriorating Relations with Pakistan: A Legacy of Conflict

Indo-Pak relations remain deeply strained, characterized by persistent cross-border terrorism, the unresolved Kashmir conflict, and escalating military tensions. This has led to a significant decoupling in diplomatic and strategic ties.

• Consistent cross-border terrorism: Pakistan-based terrorist groups continue to launch attacks inside India, undermining internal security and fueling deep distrust. This has consistently hampered any meaningful progress in bilateral dialogue.
• The Kashmir dispute: The unresolved territorial dispute over Kashmir remains a major point of contention, hindering any substantial improvement in relations. Multiple attempts at dialogue have failed to yield a lasting solution.
• Escalating military tensions: Periodic military escalations along the Line of Control (LoC) further exacerbate the tense atmosphere, making cooperation virtually impossible. This creates a climate of mistrust that severely impacts all areas of bilateral engagement.
• Increased international isolation of Pakistan: Pakistan's continued support for terrorist groups has led to increased international isolation, impacting its ability to exert influence and further straining its relationship with India. This isolation has limited the avenues for diplomatic engagement between the two nations.

The historical context of strained Indo-Pak relations, marked by wars and numerous diplomatic failures, significantly contributes to the current decoupling. Terrorism emanating from Pakistan has fundamentally altered India's strategic thinking, limiting cooperation to a bare minimum and prioritizing security concerns above all else.

Diverging Ideological and Geopolitical Interests with Turkey: A Growing Divide

India-Turkey relations, once marked by a degree of cordiality, have witnessed a significant divergence in recent years due to differing geopolitical alignments and ideological stances.

• Turkey's assertive foreign policy: Turkey's increasingly assertive foreign policy, including its support for certain Islamist groups, clashes with India's secular outlook and strategic priorities. This ideological divergence has created a wedge between the two nations.
• Geopolitical divergence: Growing divergence in geopolitical alignments, particularly regarding regional conflicts in the Middle East, has strained the relationship further. India's strategic partnerships often contrast with Turkey's approach to these conflicts.
• Reduced defense cooperation and trade: Defense cooperation and trade between the two nations have significantly reduced, reflecting the declining level of trust and cooperation. The diminished trade ties are a direct outcome of this strategic divergence.
• Competition for influence: Both countries compete for influence in Central Asia and the Middle East, leading to indirect conflicts and hindering closer collaboration. This competition for regional influence limits the potential for mutually beneficial partnerships.

The historical context of India-Turkey relations reveals a gradual shift, marked by a decline in strategic alignment. Turkey's foreign policy choices, particularly its support for certain groups and its actions in regional conflicts, directly impact India's strategic calculus, leading to a greater distance between the two countries.

Strategic Reassessment of Relations with Azerbaijan: Navigating a Shifting Landscape

India's relationship with Azerbaijan is undergoing a strategic reassessment, largely driven by changes in the regional geopolitical landscape and concerns over energy security.

• Azerbaijan's regional partnerships: Azerbaijan's growing reliance on Turkey and its engagement with other regional powers necessitates a re-evaluation of India's engagement with Baku. This requires a reassessment of the strategic value of the partnership.
• China's growing influence: China's expanding influence in the South Caucasus raises concerns about the long-term stability of the region and India's interests. This poses new strategic challenges that need to be addressed.
• Energy security: India's reassessment of its energy security partnerships requires a diversification of sources and routes, leading to a shift in priorities regarding Azerbaijan. This is a key factor driving the strategic recalibration.
• Diversification of strategic partnerships: India is focusing on diversifying its strategic partnerships in the region, reducing over-reliance on any single country. This policy shift necessitates a reassessment of the relationship with Azerbaijan.

The evolving geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus is a crucial factor in India's reassessment of its relationship with Azerbaijan. Energy security remains a critical component of India's foreign policy, driving the need for diversification and strategic recalibration.

India's Emerging Strategic Partnerships: A New Era of Alliances

India's decoupling from certain traditional partners is accompanied by a strengthening of ties with other countries sharing its democratic values and strategic interests.

• Strengthening ties with the US and Israel: India's relationships with the US and Israel have significantly deepened, reflecting shared strategic interests and a commitment to democratic values. These partnerships are now cornerstones of India's foreign policy.
• Active participation in the Quad: India's active participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), alongside the US, Japan, and Australia, underscores its commitment to maintaining security and stability in the Indo-Pacific. This signifies a significant shift in India's regional strategy.
• Economic diplomacy: India is increasingly focusing on economic diplomacy and strategic partnerships based on shared economic interests and mutual benefit. This reflects a move towards more pragmatic and mutually beneficial relationships.
• Defense and technological collaborations: India is actively developing stronger defense and technological collaborations with like-minded partners to enhance its security capabilities. These collaborations are strengthening India's position on the global stage.

India's shift towards strengthening partnerships based on shared values and strategic interests reflects a fundamental realignment of its foreign policy. The Quad and other strategic partnerships are crucial in shaping India's engagement with the global community.

Conclusion: A New Geopolitical Landscape for India

India's decision to decouple from Pakistan, Turkey, and Azerbaijan represents a calculated strategic shift driven by evolving geopolitical realities and a reassessment of national interests. This recalibration involves strengthening ties with democratic partners and focusing on economic and security cooperation based on shared values and goals. This strategic shift highlights the changing dynamics of South Asia and Eurasia.

Understanding India's strategic decoupling is crucial for comprehending the changing geopolitical landscape of South Asia and Eurasia. Further research and analysis of India's evolving foreign policy and its implications for regional stability are necessary. Continue to follow developments in India's strategic partnerships to stay informed about this significant geopolitical shift. Further research into India's strategic decoupling will reveal deeper insights into this crucial shift in foreign policy.