Will Boris Johnson Return To Power? A Tory Party In Crisis

5 min read Post on May 03, 2025

Will Boris Johnson Return To Power? A Tory Party In Crisis

Johnson's Remaining Support Base Within the Tory Party

Despite his resignation, a significant faction of Conservative MPs and party members remain fiercely loyal to Boris Johnson. This unwavering support forms a crucial foundation for any potential comeback bid.

Loyal MPs and grassroots support:

Vocal Supporters in Parliament: Several prominent Conservative MPs, including [insert names and examples of high-profile supporters], have publicly expressed their continued support for Johnson and criticized the current leadership. These vocal advocates provide vital political capital and a platform for disseminating pro-Johnson messaging.
Grassroots Campaigns: Numerous grassroots campaigns, often active on social media and organizing local events, actively advocate for a Johnson return. These efforts demonstrate a persistent groundswell of support amongst party members outside of Parliament.
Enduring Popularity: While public opinion is divided, polling data suggests that Johnson retains significant support amongst specific demographics within the Conservative party, particularly those prioritizing [mention key policy areas or ideological positions favoured by Johnson's base]. This suggests a potentially mobilized voting bloc within the party.
Organizational Strength: The existence of well-organized networks of supporters, both online and offline, indicates a capacity for a coordinated "Johnson comeback" campaign. This organizational strength is a crucial asset in any potential leadership challenge.

Weaknesses within the current leadership:

The current Tory leadership faces considerable challenges that could inadvertently pave the way for a Johnson return.

Policy Failures: The government's handling of [cite specific policy failures, e.g., the cost of living crisis, NHS waiting lists] has led to widespread criticism and declining approval ratings. These failures create an opening for a figure like Johnson, who can attempt to present himself as a stronger alternative.
Internal Divisions: Reports of internal disagreements and infighting within the current government highlight a lack of cohesion and unity. This weakness contrasts with the perceived strength and decisiveness often attributed to Johnson's leadership style.
Plummeting Approval Ratings: Polling data consistently shows very low approval ratings for the current Prime Minister, creating fertile ground for a challenge from a figure like Johnson who, despite his own controversies, might be perceived as a less damaging option. This decline in public confidence undermines the current leadership's authority and bolsters arguments for a change.

Obstacles to a Johnson Comeback

While Johnson retains a loyal following, several significant obstacles stand in the way of his return to power.

Party rules and procedures:

The Conservative Party's rules and procedures regarding leadership challenges present a significant hurdle.

Eligibility Requirements: The exact rules governing eligibility for a leadership contest are complex and may require specific conditions to be met. This includes potentially needing the support of a certain number of MPs to trigger a challenge.
Timeline and Requirements: The process for a leadership challenge is time-consuming and involves several procedural steps, from securing nominations to organizing and conducting a ballot. This timeframe could be exploited by opponents.
Potential Rule Changes: The party may even amend the rules to specifically prevent Johnson from running again, highlighting the determination of some within the party to prevent a comeback.

Public Opinion and Media Scrutiny:

Public perception of Johnson remains deeply divided, and intense media scrutiny continues to surround his past actions.

Negative Public Opinion: Polls reveal significant public disapproval of Johnson's conduct while in office, and this negative perception could significantly hinder his chances of regaining the leadership.
Media Scrutiny: The media remains vigilant in reporting on any potential wrongdoing or controversial actions, making it difficult for Johnson to fully rehabilitate his image.
Impact on Electability: The persistent negative media coverage and public skepticism make a general election victory under Johnson's leadership a challenging prospect. His ability to effectively manage this negative narrative will be crucial.

Potential Scenarios and Their Likelihood

Several scenarios could unfold, each with varying degrees of likelihood.

A swift return to power?

A sudden leadership challenge could propel Johnson back into power. However, this scenario hinges on several factors aligning simultaneously:

Rapid Erosion of Support: A catastrophic event or series of failures could rapidly erode the current leader's standing, creating an immediate opportunity for a challenge.
Strategic Timing: A well-timed challenge, potentially exploiting a moment of political weakness, is crucial for success.
Sufficient Support: Securing the necessary level of support amongst MPs to trigger a leadership contest is critical.

A longer-term strategy?

A more gradual approach involves Johnson rebuilding his image and influence within the party over time:

Image Rehabilitation: Johnson may attempt to improve his public image through strategic media appearances and carefully crafted messaging.
Strategic Alliances: He would likely need to forge alliances with other influential figures within the party to build a strong support base.
Policy Positions: Re-evaluating and recalibrating policy positions might be necessary to appeal to a broader range of party members.

Conclusion:

The question of whether Boris Johnson will return to power remains highly complex and uncertain. While he retains considerable support within sections of the Conservative Party, significant obstacles remain. The current leadership's vulnerabilities and lingering loyalty provide some grounds for optimism for his supporters, but negative public opinion and party rules must not be underestimated. Ultimately, the future of the Tory party, and the potential for a Boris Johnson return to power, remains a developing story. Keep checking back for further updates on the evolving political landscape and the ongoing debate surrounding a potential Boris Johnson return to power.